In the process of industrialization and urbanization has not yet completed, especially in the face of the dual economic structure inhibited the huge market potential has not yet played, the domestic market to maintain the per capita steel consumption is relatively low, I believe that this time China's steel market has reached lightly saturation and the inflection point is still too early.
Through "15" period of development, the rapid growth of China's steel production capacity. According to the National Development and Reform Commission investigation, the end of 2005, China has formed 470 million tons of crude steel production capacity, and build capacity and proposed capacity is still quite large, if fully completed, China will reach 600 million tons of crude steel production capacity of more than. Just look at the numbers, China's steel overcapacity situation is quite grim. But if the future of China's steel demand clear how, "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" which will drive the steel industry, increased demand, we can correctly determine the future supply and demand of China's steel market, China's steel consumption growth to grasp the next hot spot.
One, "during" China's steel demand will continue to maintain growth, but growth rate than the "fifth" period will be marked down
Determined according to the Plenum of the "Eleventh Five-Year" period of economic and social development of the main objectives: optimizing structure, improving efficiency and reducing consumption, based on the 2010 per capita GDP in 2000 double. Development plan, this was my goal to double economic output is different, that reflects the stable and rapid economic growth, in line with the objective trend of China's economic development. According to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Economics, "macro-economic growth and stability in the discussion group" forecast, "during" the potential of China's economic growth rate will be 9%, moderate growth of 8% -10% range, slightly lower than "10 5, "China's average growth rate 9.4% (Note: After the economic census GDP revised value).
According to the Central "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" proposed, "Eleventh Five-Year" period and to maintain economic growth, but also to focus on improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth and accelerate the strategic adjustment of economic structure. To further expand domestic demand, adjust the relationship between investment and consumption, increased spending on the role of economic growth. Therefore, the "Eleventh Five-Year" period will be lower than China's fixed asset investment growth rate of "15" period. It is estimated that "15" China's investment in fixed assets during the nominal average annual growth rate of 22% (2000 3.2619 trillion yuan, 8.8604 trillion yuan in 2005). According to the National Development and Reform Commission forecast of Macroeconomic Research Institute of Investment, "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, China's investment growth rate will be 13.5% nominal around.
The above on the "Eleventh Five-Year" period to judge the economic situation in China, "during" China's steel consumption structure will undergo significant change, growth will be significantly lower than "15" period. Expected "during" an average annual growth rate of China's steel consumption will be between 10-12%, below the "15" average annual growth rate of 21.6%. 2005, China's apparent consumption of 376.51 million tons of steel, less duplication of material, etc., in 2005 the actual consumption of steel in China should be at 3.5 million tons, thus we make a simple extrapolation, estimated that by 2010 China's steel consumption will reach the actual between 5.6-6.2 million tons. Medium and long term, the future our country should have 5-6 million tons of crude steel production side can basically meet the domestic steel market supply and demand balance. However, rapid growth stage of production capacity and the structural imbalance between supply and demand, and would be a stable development of China's steel market disadvantages. Therefore, China's industrialization and urbanization process has not been completed, especially in the face of inhibition of the dual economic structure has not yet played a huge market potential, per capita steel consumption to maintain the domestic market is relatively low, I think that China's steel market at this time lightly has reached saturation and the inflection point is still too early.
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